Is Tinubu’s Second Term an Existential Threat to Nigeria? Ogbonnia Thinks So — Here’s Why It Matters

Nigeria’s democracy is a tapestry woven with tension, hope, and fierce debate about what leadership should look like in a nation of over 200 million people. Against that backdrop, a debate that’s gaining traction today is the question of whether President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s possible second term in office would pose an existential risk to the country’s unity and democratic progress — a view forcefully articulated by Dr. SKC Ogbonnia, a former APC presidential aspirant and now stalwart of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). 

In a politically charged address delivered shortly after formally joining the ADC in Ugbo, Awgu Local Government Area, Enugu State, Ogbonnia declared that he sees Tinubu’s potential second term not merely as undesirable, but as a danger to Nigeria’s very fabric. He described the incumbent president as one of the “worst presidents in the history of Nigeria” and argued that extending his leadership beyond the current tenure could imperil democratic norms and deepen national fractures. 

From APC to ADC: A Political Shift with Purpose

Ogbonnia’s transition from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) — where he once vied for the presidential ticket — to the African Democratic Congress is itself emblematic of broader dissatisfaction among some political actors. His narrative is not just personal disillusionment; it’s a critique of governance failures that he believes have left Nigerians struggling with insecurity, unemployment, poverty, and declining trust in public institutions. 

By anchoring his political crusade within the ADC and rallying for a “united opposition capable of producing credible candidates at all levels”, Ogbonnia is articulating a vision of political contestation that diverges sharply from the dominance of one party and one leader’s extended rule. 

What Does “Existential Threat” Mean in This Context?

When a former APC stalwart warns that a president’s second term could be an existential threat, it’s more than hyperbole.

At its heart, the concern is about the health of Nigerian democracy — whether a second term could further erode checks and balances, marginalise opposition voices, and concentrate power in ways that weaken democratic competition and accountability.

A similar warning has been voiced by other opposition figures. For instance, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar argued recently that democratic space in Nigeria is under strain, with opposition parties struggling to hold power to account as the ruling party consolidates dominance. 

To Ogbonnia and others, this “existential threat” isn’t just about one man staying longer in office — it’s about a political environment where vibrant opposition, institutional independence, and democratic rotation of leadership become increasingly constrained.

Why This Matters for Nigeria’s Political Future

Nigeria’s democracy, like any, thrives on competition, accountability, and the peaceful alternation of power. When leaders seek a second term — or when critics frame that pursuit as dangerous — it compels a national conversation about governance, citizen welfare, and the mechanisms that preserve democratic integrity.

The stakes are high because the next general election (scheduled for 2027) will be a referendum not only on who leads the country but also on what kind of political system Nigerians want.

A second term bid for a sitting president is not inherently undemocratic. In many democracies worldwide, incumbents seek re-election and win based on performance or public confidence. But the intensity of debate around Tinubu’s potential second term — and opposition warnings about its implications — reflects deep public anxiety about economic hardship, security challenges, and governance deficits that some believe have worsened under the current administration. 

Framing the Debate Beyond Rhetoric

Whether one agrees with Ogbonnia’s assessment or not, his critique spotlights a core democratic question: How do we ensure that contestation remains robust, peaceful, and oriented toward the common good? The answer isn’t simple, and it isn’t found in slogans alone. It resides in strengthened institutions, transparent electoral processes, civic engagement, and a political culture that prizes accountability over incumbency.

If the discourse around a second term is to be constructive, it must pivot toward policies, performance, and the tangible ways leadership affects everyday Nigerians — not just abstract notions of threat or survival.

As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general election, the country is not merely choosing leaders — it is negotiating its democratic identity. Voices like Ogbonnia’s remind us that in healthy democracies, power is both contested and constrained, and the real measure of leadership isn’t longevity in office, but the extent to which it elevates the welfare, dignity, and aspirations of its people.